Publications

The history of petroleum exploration in the United States can be generalized to other regions if the factors that influenced succesful searching can be identified. A historical analysis shows that the largest fields are found first and that the size distribution of fields constantly changes. Thus, the average cost of drilling per barrel discovered constantly increases. An analysis relating the quantity of oil discovered to the intensity of exploratory drilling shows that since 1929 the rate of success per unit of search effort has declined exponentially. A random drilling or probability model can explain the major features of the exploration history. Moreover, a computer simulation using a Monte Carlo method indicates that industry has been no more succesful than random drilling in finding giant oil fields.