Publications

Total E&P Indonesie (TEPI) is the largest hydrocarbon producer in Indonesia with the Mahakam delta as the area of operation since 1974. Currently, the production is coming from 7 mature fields with more than 2000 wells (gas & oil), complex and ageing surface facilities, a huge amount of surface operation activities, sub surface issues (sand production, water breakthrough, reservoir pressure depletion, ageing well completion, etc) and different production forecast methodology on each field creating a very challenging environment for production forecast management. Integrated production forecasts for operational reliability with elaboration by cross-disciplinary teams is the key for Mahakam PSC in achieving substantial targets related to the deliverability of the best estimate production forecast. IP-FORECAST integrates the reservoir management aspect (field potential forecast), well intervention planning, project planning, drilling sequence, surface installations-maintenance and third parties (pipe line network, Bontang inventory and lifting issues). It is designed to be able to respond dynamically to the production forecast demand such as short term (daily-weekly) and long term (monthly-yearly) forecasts. This paper describes the practical application of IP-FORECAST and its ability to adapt to the dynamic condition of the upstream and downstream sectors. The results demonstrate the high accuracy of production forecast compared to the actual realization.