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The MBH Field, one of the gas fields in the Madura Strait area, have just started its production in October 2022. By using the latest data from the development drilling campaign, a trustworthy 3D reservoir static model has been produced by integrating the geological principles, geophysical interpretation, and petrophysical analysis to accommodate the heterogeneity state of the reservoir. On the other hand, relying solely on geostatistical models for the study and interpretation of MBH Field development and production would be an ambiguous movement. The limited data from one vertical exploration well and just two horizontal development wells could lead to fuzziness in determining the reservoir parameters. Likewise, every geostatistical method has a different approach in calculating and displaying their statistical result, which could show an imprecise interpretation, especially to rescue the lateral distribution of the Globigerina Limestone at Mundu and Selorejo sequences as the reservoir target.

To overcome the unpredictable reservoir information and optimize project valuation, uncertainty analysis is a high-prioritized job to do. Based on utilizing the Monte-Carlo simulation and the application of sensitivity analyses, it could be assumed that the shape of the structure plays a very vital role. The stochastic structure shows 9000 acre.ft different for the gross reservoir volume, which is highly uncertain at the flanks. The region-wide analyses and minimum amount of lateral data also contribute to the uncertainty distribution of the rock type, permeability, and water saturation, which are only guided by seismic attributes. This entire combination results in different OGIP results up to 41% and is expected to be able to accommodate production amounts that have not yet reached 10% of total reserves.