Publications

The recent high-impact exploration successes in Indonesia's deep and ultra-deep water have generated new excitement in the upstream industry in the country. This paper will mainly focus on the Kutei Basin, where a world-class gas discovery was made in late 2023. In addition to analyzing exploration trends in the basin, we will look at possible options for upcoming developments, including high-level commercial and economic assessments. Looking at subsurface aspects, the coastal and shallow-water parts of the Kutei Basin are mature areas for oil and gas exploration. Creaming curve analysis of discovered resources suggests limited remaining potential for the deltaic plays which have been historically the most prolific in the basin. On the other hand, the emerging ultra-deepwater turbidite play could still present significant upside, with further exploration drilling being planned.
From a commercial point of view, the latest discovery is expected to also unlock a development path for some of the previously stranded gas finds in the area. These additional gas volumes could reverse the production decline trend currently seen in the basin and provide much-needed feedstock to relaunch the gas infrastructure in East Kalimantan. In particular, the Bontang LNG plant, which has been operating below capacity for several years, is likely to be the main beneficiary of the new developments.