Publications

An Environmental Risk Analysis (ERA) was conducted for multiple oil spill scenarios in connection to Total E&P Indonesie’s oil and gas producing activities in the Mahakam Delta, Borneo, Indonesia. The objective of this study is to calculate potential environment risk, for a set of environmental resources, and present the output in Company’s risk matrix. The oil spill trajectory modeling tool OSCAR (SINTEF, Norway) was applied, considering local wind and current conditions. The environmental resources applied in the analysis are referred to as Valued Ecosystem Components (VECs), a combination of various fauna and flora components (coastal seabird species, crocodile and lizard nesting beaches, shrimp and fish farming areas and mangroves) and coastal habitats. Environmental damage (consequence) is expressed as recovery time and calculated for each VEC based on vulnerability and oil exposure, the later output from the oil drift model. Environmental risk is expressed as combination of environmental damage potential and the probability for the damage to occur. Risk calculations were carried out at VEC level for all scenarios with the results plotted in Total’s risk matrix, where the vertical axis describes probability for damage and the horizontal describes severity of damage. The findings were compared to company defined risk acceptance criteria in order to assess the necessity for risk reducing measures. (Total, 2015) describes further methodology adaption where the extension of impact is considered. This means that VEC length in kilometer determines the placement of risk in the different damage categories. In addition, if the loss of mangrove is < 10 %, the risk can be shifted between different damage categories, depending on the length of the mangrove in kilometers. By taking into consideration the extension of impact, none of the scenarios defined has unacceptable risk. Keywords: Environment Risk Analysis, Valued Ecosystem Components, Risk Matrix