Publications

Water coning is a serious problem yet a common occurrence in oil production. When water begins breaking through into the wellbore, increasing water cut reduces oil recovery, reduces efficiency of depletion mechanism and increases lifting cost. This paper focuses on determining critical rate production as one of several economical methods to overcome water coning. Nowadays coning behaviour in a horizontal wells is not fully understood. Lack of knowledge of fluid distribution and heterogeneity of the reservoir lead to either over-predicting or under-predicting the effect of some parameters controlling water coning. Muskat and Wyckoff (1935) proposed a simple formulation for water coning in a vertical well. Based on Muskat’s definition, we can limit water coning by control of critical production rate. Further, critical production rate is the maximum rate at which cone/crest stability is unaffected. Research on water cresting behavior in horizontal wells has been conducted mathematically such by Joshi (1988), and physically as well in the laboratory by Permadi (2010). The objectives of this research is to analyze water coning and approximate range of critical production rate and its relationship to optimum supercritical rate in horizontal well with bottom water drive systems by changing some parameters. The parameters are porosity, permeability, pay zone thickness, and drainage geometry. This research uses ANFIS™ (Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System) to determine a method for predicting critical production rate and optimum rate.