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Indonesia Security Outlook 2010 : Challenges ahead for Indonesia's Security

Proceedings Title : Proc. Indon. Petrol. Assoc., 34th Ann. Conv., 2010

There is no doubt that national security will remain as a big concern in 2010. There are various events that have been and still going on along 2009 that gave signals on the possible events that may give some color to the national security situation in the coming year. According to our observation, several importantly relevant phenomena to be concerned about are: 1. "KPK VS Police Force/Public Attorney" case related closely wit the bail out of Century Bankin 2008, 2. The JW Marriot and Ritz Carlton Hotels bombings in Mega Kuningan, Jakarta followed by the death of several important terrorism figures, including Noordin M. Top, 3. 244 Regional Elections (Pilkada) in 2010 (7 provinces and 237 districts/cities), 4. The next phase of global financial crisis that will happen simultaneously with the ASEANChina Free Trade Agreement on 1 January2010, 5. Separatism issue, especially post-Kelly Kwalik's death at the end of 2009, 6. The national security system capacity and state budget allocation in the amount of IDR. 40 trillions in 2010. Each and every phenomenon above needs attention because of its direct and indirect effects created. For example, the development of Century Bank's case has been more interesting everyday, it even tends to drag some of the elite politics' big names. The public demand to solve this case is still heard, although it has been a long dragging process. It is very possible that this event will create resistance from various parties and resulted in a widespread conflict. The same thing may happen in result of the assassination of terrorism figure from Malaysia, post-bomb blasting at the JW Marriot and Ritz Carlton hotels, which for a while may cease various terror attacks. However, on the other hand, it also creates more "heroes" or inspirational figure for new generation of terrorists. Other events, such as Regional Election (Pilkada), which has become a routine agenda of regional politics for the last several years is something that we still need to be concerned about, because of its significant number and the existing conflict potential. It is also the same with the chain effect of global economic crisis at the end of 2009 that showed a new jolt. While in a relatively short time, Indonesia has to prepare itself to enter a furious competition of free market in the ASEAN level plus China. Separatism issue could have been seen as a "nonfactor" because there has not been any extraordinary phenomenon that happened more than half way of 2009. However, the shootings that happened in Aceh, as well as the death of Papuan figure, Kelly Kwalik, in December 2009 placed separatism issue back in the 2010 security issue radar. Lastly, the national security capacity needs to become one of the variables in this analysis to consider the system's response when the various phenomena mentioned above are heated, or worse, exploded at the same time.

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