Publications

Oil and gas companies around the world are facing a more common requirement to include geological models in the submission for regulatory approval of exploration and development proposals. This paper discusses the value of geological modelling for this purpose and highlights some of the potential problems associated with the evaluation of geological models. The most important issue is to develop a consensus on what is meant by a good model and whether a single model of the reservoir is sufficient for regulatory authorities to approve a plan. The second issue concerns the concept of certification, who is qualified to construct a model? Who is qualified to examine or audit a model? Without clear answers to these questions, it is difficult for the industry to provide the information that these authorities require. Moreover without precise definitions of the requirements of the authorities it is easy for industry to waste precious resources producing models that have no numerical validity or predictive capability. This paper seeks to open discussion on these issues and to suggest areas where consensus needs to be established for the benefit of the government and the industry. Uncertainty in structural interpretation and uncertainty in deposition have significant impact on good reservoir management for individual companies and wise management of national resources. Specific areas of concern are, volumetric calculations, risk analysis and the problems associated with the development of geological models in areas where data is sparse. This paper will discuss alternative modelling strategies in these areas and recommend appropriate workflows.